Community/ORCL
AInvest curates key KOL insights on ORCL.
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After shrugging off $AVGO -12.6% on Thursday, the strong jobs report drove the 2yr yld +10bps to the highest levels since early 2025 & S&P -2.6% on Fri. For the wk, S&P/Nas/SOXX/Mag7 were -2.6%/-4.7%/-4.7%/-5.8% despite oil -3% to $91.
This is what I posted on X on last Sunday night “Over the near-term, the overall market at some point will need to take a breather from increasingly overbought technical conditions. After nine straight weekly gains, the S&P is now up 19% from its recent closing low on March 30th. But I feel like any losses will be contained to the typical ~5% pullback which is typically seen three to four times per year.”
After being up for nine straight weeks, the S&P went from an all-time closing high on Tuesday June 2nd and 14-day RSI of 75 to an RSI of 49 on Friday June 5th and down 3.0% from that Tuesday level.
During the internet infrastructure buildout between December 31, 1994 and the peak on March 10, 2000, the S&P tripled, the Nasdaq went up 6.7x and the SOXX Index advanced 9.5x. The S&P during this time had its 14-day RSI cross below 70 (overbought level) fifty times. 36% of the time, that day was the low point before it crossed back above 70 again. 42% of the time the low was reached within 2 trading days and 62% within three days. The average was 10 trading days to hit a short-term low and down 2.5% on average from the overbought level before the advance started to the next overbought reading.
Next week, there will be several potential market moving events. The $AAPL WWDC is on Monday. With the stock price surge into this event, a sell the news reaction would not be surprising much like with recent tech results. But I am bullish longer-term given after a 2 year wait we should finally get an AI infused iPhone. I am also very bullish on the larger form factor of a foldable phone that has driven major upgrade cycles in the past. Samsung introduced a foldable in 2019.
CPI on Wednesday will be closely watched along with how bond yields react. $ORCL results are also that day which should be solid given recent commentary from major customer OpenAI as well as related hyper-scaler cloud results. Having said that, a new CFO may want to set very achievable initial FY27 guidance that could disappoint.
The ECB is likely to raise rates on Thursday since being on hold after cutting rates in June of 2025 to 2.0%. Commentary will likely set the bar for the Fed in the following week.
Over the long-term I remain bullish given: 1) S&P earnings are expected to increase 25% this year driven by the advent of Agentic AI, 2) I believe oil prices will come down to the $80ish level given the political toll it is extracting on the US administration every day that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and 3) new Fed Chairman Warsh is likely to push back against calls to raise rates. I view this recent pullback as well needed to work off the recent froth versus marking "the top."
All the best in the week ahead.
This is what I posted on X on last Sunday night “Over the near-term, the overall market at some point will need to take a breather from increasingly overbought technical conditions. After nine straight weekly gains, the S&P is now up 19% from its recent closing low on March 30th. But I feel like any losses will be contained to the typical ~5% pullback which is typically seen three to four times per year.”
After being up for nine straight weeks, the S&P went from an all-time closing high on Tuesday June 2nd and 14-day RSI of 75 to an RSI of 49 on Friday June 5th and down 3.0% from that Tuesday level.
During the internet infrastructure buildout between December 31, 1994 and the peak on March 10, 2000, the S&P tripled, the Nasdaq went up 6.7x and the SOXX Index advanced 9.5x. The S&P during this time had its 14-day RSI cross below 70 (overbought level) fifty times. 36% of the time, that day was the low point before it crossed back above 70 again. 42% of the time the low was reached within 2 trading days and 62% within three days. The average was 10 trading days to hit a short-term low and down 2.5% on average from the overbought level before the advance started to the next overbought reading.
Next week, there will be several potential market moving events. The $AAPL WWDC is on Monday. With the stock price surge into this event, a sell the news reaction would not be surprising much like with recent tech results. But I am bullish longer-term given after a 2 year wait we should finally get an AI infused iPhone. I am also very bullish on the larger form factor of a foldable phone that has driven major upgrade cycles in the past. Samsung introduced a foldable in 2019.
CPI on Wednesday will be closely watched along with how bond yields react. $ORCL results are also that day which should be solid given recent commentary from major customer OpenAI as well as related hyper-scaler cloud results. Having said that, a new CFO may want to set very achievable initial FY27 guidance that could disappoint.
The ECB is likely to raise rates on Thursday since being on hold after cutting rates in June of 2025 to 2.0%. Commentary will likely set the bar for the Fed in the following week.
Over the long-term I remain bullish given: 1) S&P earnings are expected to increase 25% this year driven by the advent of Agentic AI, 2) I believe oil prices will come down to the $80ish level given the political toll it is extracting on the US administration every day that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and 3) new Fed Chairman Warsh is likely to push back against calls to raise rates. I view this recent pullback as well needed to work off the recent froth versus marking "the top."
All the best in the week ahead.
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007ggman:S&P -2.6% on Friday, 2y yield +10bps, RSI 49 from 75; weekly losses averaging ~5% post-9-week streak, consistent with prior overbought pullbacks.
pellosanto:Feels heavy; I’ll wait for a cleaner bounce.
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Most people read Trump's AI executive order as a headline. Here's the actual mechanism and who wins.
The order does three concrete things: it asks AI companies to voluntarily submit frontier models for government review 30 days before release; it directs agencies to build an "AI cybersecurity clearinghouse"; and it accelerates federal procurement of AI systems. Beneath those three lines is a $30 billion Pentagon AI budget that is now actively looking for deployment vehicles.
The direct beneficiary map: Palantir (PLTR) is already embedded — its Maven AI system compressed Iran targeting cycles from days to minutes and is operationally live. CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto (PANW) benefit from the cybersecurity hardening mandate. Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) are the cloud infrastructure layer for most federal AI deployments. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) is the systems integrator that translates policy into contracts.
The less obvious beneficiary: Anthropic. The order was partly triggered by security concerns over models like Claude that can exploit vulnerabilities at unprecedented speeds — the Pentagon is simultaneously designating it a "supply-chain risk" and remaining its largest government AI user. That tension doesn't resolve cleanly, but it guarantees Anthropic stays central to federal AI policy for years.
This isn't a one-day trade. It's a multi-year government procurement cycle that most equity models haven't fully priced.
The order does three concrete things: it asks AI companies to voluntarily submit frontier models for government review 30 days before release; it directs agencies to build an "AI cybersecurity clearinghouse"; and it accelerates federal procurement of AI systems. Beneath those three lines is a $30 billion Pentagon AI budget that is now actively looking for deployment vehicles.
The direct beneficiary map: Palantir (PLTR) is already embedded — its Maven AI system compressed Iran targeting cycles from days to minutes and is operationally live. CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto (PANW) benefit from the cybersecurity hardening mandate. Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) are the cloud infrastructure layer for most federal AI deployments. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) is the systems integrator that translates policy into contracts.
The less obvious beneficiary: Anthropic. The order was partly triggered by security concerns over models like Claude that can exploit vulnerabilities at unprecedented speeds — the Pentagon is simultaneously designating it a "supply-chain risk" and remaining its largest government AI user. That tension doesn't resolve cleanly, but it guarantees Anthropic stays central to federal AI policy for years.
This isn't a one-day trade. It's a multi-year government procurement cycle that most equity models haven't fully priced.
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Sea-Ingenuity-9508:Trend looks intact: PLTR and CRWD are already up on this, and PANW/MSFT keep stacking federal contracts. If the clearinghouse ramps, we’ll see more buybacks and guidance hikes, which momentum traders should chase.
Summerdaysengineer:Procurement cycles plus higher rates usually mean slower deployments.
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The Trump administration just signed an executive order on AI innovation and security.
President's AI order is not just a chip headline...
These are the stocks I'm watching:
AI front-end: $NVDA $AMD $AVGO
Cloud: $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $ORCL
Data centers: $DELL $SMCI $VRT
Power/grid: $CEG $VST $ETN $PWR
Cybersecurity: $CRWD $PANW $ZS
Defense AI: $PLTR $BAH
The better question is what the order actually funds or removes friction from:
data center permitting
federal AI procurement
cyber/model security
power/grid buildout
AI exports
domestic semis
That is where the watchlist comes from.
President's AI order is not just a chip headline...
These are the stocks I'm watching:
AI front-end: $NVDA $AMD $AVGO
Cloud: $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $ORCL
Data centers: $DELL $SMCI $VRT
Power/grid: $CEG $VST $ETN $PWR
Cybersecurity: $CRWD $PANW $ZS
Defense AI: $PLTR $BAH
The better question is what the order actually funds or removes friction from:
data center permitting
federal AI procurement
cyber/model security
power/grid buildout
AI exports
domestic semis
That is where the watchlist comes from.
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skilliard7:Still holding NVDA, but wary of policy-driven hype.
Chemical_Home6387:I’m on the sidelines, honestly. The list looks broad, but I’d rather see a concrete timeline or budget line item before touching any of these names. Feels exciting, but I’m not chasing.
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Prediction: 5 years from now Devs will run most (80-95%) of their AI workloads locally.
Today's OSS coding models are already good enough for most problems. They will be far better in 5 years.
Today's hardware can already run coding models. All you need is a decent GPU, a DGX sparc, a Jetson Orin Nano Super, etc. Hardware will be optimized for AI workloads and performance for AI will increase far faster than Moore's law.
Today we pay for Claude to get the harness (Claude code), but that piece will have strong OSS alternatives. This is now especially easier since much of the harness can be generated using AI.
You will be able to tap into datacenter level compute/memory or frontier models as needed but will seldom need it for coding.
If I'm right, there are some interesting questions.
1. As an investor, I'd bet on OpenAI, Claude, others. for the next 2 years, but for 5 years...it's a coin flip. At least one ends up as myspace(dies), one ends up as Facebook(prospers), and one ends up like reddit (survives but meaningless). I guarantee a big player like Oracle, Google, Microsoft, IBM buys at least one of them.
2. What do we do with all the compute we are building out now? My guess is they become compute wholesalers to corporations that have AI baked into their apps and the AI datacenters become a new Cloud, call it Cloud 2.0.
Today's OSS coding models are already good enough for most problems. They will be far better in 5 years.
Today's hardware can already run coding models. All you need is a decent GPU, a DGX sparc, a Jetson Orin Nano Super, etc. Hardware will be optimized for AI workloads and performance for AI will increase far faster than Moore's law.
Today we pay for Claude to get the harness (Claude code), but that piece will have strong OSS alternatives. This is now especially easier since much of the harness can be generated using AI.
You will be able to tap into datacenter level compute/memory or frontier models as needed but will seldom need it for coding.
If I'm right, there are some interesting questions.
1. As an investor, I'd bet on OpenAI, Claude, others. for the next 2 years, but for 5 years...it's a coin flip. At least one ends up as myspace(dies), one ends up as Facebook(prospers), and one ends up like reddit (survives but meaningless). I guarantee a big player like Oracle, Google, Microsoft, IBM buys at least one of them.
2. What do we do with all the compute we are building out now? My guess is they become compute wholesalers to corporations that have AI baked into their apps and the AI datacenters become a new Cloud, call it Cloud 2.0.
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thegratefulshread:Everyone's cheering local AI, but I feel the opposite. Fragmentation scares me; OSS tools won't standardize, and companies won't trust DIY pipelines.
itshtn:If devs really run 80-95% locally, how do they share models, debug, or collaborate? What happens to enterprise support and compliance? And if hardware is commoditized, who captures margins—OEMs, GPU makers, or software providers?
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$ORCL if I don’t see a 30% jump in earnings I’ll be upset otherwise I’ll just wait it out
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Great-Hornet-8064:I’m new here, but it seems like Oracle is saying they’ll wait for a big earnings bump. If it doesn’t happen, they’ll feel disappointed. Feels like patience is key right now.
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$ORCL this one oracle ✨️ Super 💚 bullish very very
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$ORCL today was a great chance to buy at a very low price. We're aiming for 270 after the earnings.
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Touma_Kazusa:If ORCL hits 270, it’s a ~15% pop from current levels, but the multiple’s still thin versus MSFT and AMZN. I’d watch backlog growth and enterprise spend trends before chasing.
Wanderer_369:Kinda torn here—feels like a bargain, but I’m nervous about the execution. Anybody else feel that whiplash between the headline price and the underlying momentum?
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$ORCL sky-high for this ER $250 easy maybe $300
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$ORCL Citi thinks Wall Street is missing Oracle's growth, especially in cloud and AI. So, Citi bumped its price target to $330 and kept its Buy rating.
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$MRVL Open AI must make 60 billion profit every year for the next 5 years to cover Oracle's deal plus its R&D, cash burn, and costs to stay revenue neutral. Short $AMD and the AI bubble, especially buy $SOXL puts. Huge chance to ride the drop. These companies are spending wildly.
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$ORCL it's tough to just break out already man. All those AI stocks had their time too
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What's the take on Oracle's earnings? After AVGO's mess, I'm trying to get a feel for where ORCL stands this week, especially since it might affect other stocks like $MU which I own and reports two weeks later with a big report but could face short-term effects from ORCL. They're the only big AI play reporting, though they're $1.2T market cap smaller than AVGO so not going to shake the market like that. ORCL is planning to spend even more on new stuff (stargate) than before, with $80-$100B planned over the next fiscal year, and customers like OpenAI will chip in through their $100B+ IPO fund. Seems like a positive sign. They've managed financing and customer commitments to reduce the risk of things falling apart in six months with a customer backing out. ORCL is trading at a TTM PE of 38 with projected revenue growth in the mid-20s next year. Not clear on margin scaling, but this fits expectations. TLDR: looks like a well-priced, steady earnings report with no big surprises. Will it pop or drop? Another thing: could the government take an equity stake in ORCL? My worries about that were really about someone specific getting a government-backed stake, not necessarily the government itself.
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avotoyesaru:SaaS fundamentals still strong, but execution risk looms.
SeeTheExpanse:Momentum traders will chase ORCL into strength after the dip, then fade any pullback if it reclaims highs. If MU pops on its own, the AI narrative stays intact, but spreads tighten fast.
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I'm not focused on $ORCL but I'm curious if good earnings will boost or hurt SaaS stocks. I'm fully invested in SaaS, including $NOW, $MSFT, $TEAM, $UBER, $RDDT, and $CRM.
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$ORCL It's hard to believe that all analysts are wrong... This is crazy that it's sitting here two days before what should be a huge q report
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$ORCL watch this space. Expect a lot of buying over the next two days before earnings. Will keep sharing Gammadeck charts to keep you updated.
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$ORCL around $240 to $270 based on earnings results
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$ORCL Not looking good for those holding it Glad I sold
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$ORCL Gap-ups usually lead to letdowns. Gap-downs often spark unexpected gains 📈
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$ORCL Read More Key Points Oracle's Q4 outlook depends on strong cloud app growth and more multicloud database use. Oracle got a $30B U.S. government cloud deal and improved AWS multicloud access. ORCL struggles with falling legacy software, losing EHR share, and tough cloud competition
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