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GrapeJuicex

92Followers11Following

GrapeJuicex 3h ago

$SPY It feels like the 2000s, 4 companies make up half of $NVDA's earningsNVDA--

Accomplished-Back640 2h ago

If NVDA’s earnings are tied to four suppliers, that’s supply-chain risk. Are we assuming those partners won’t pivot or face capacity issues? Seems fragile for a sector this concentrated.

cfeltus23 2h ago

Feels like the 2000s, sure, but the data says NVDA’s dominance is structural. 4 companies accounting for half NVDA’s revenue isn’t just concentration—it’s a multi-year trend. If $NVDA keeps growing at ~30% YoY, the ecosystem effect outweighs the risk.

PaleMasterpiece4612 3h ago

Kinda nervous seeing just a few companies driving NVDA’s earnings. Feels risky, but I’m still excited about AI. Any advice for newbies?

GrapeJuicex Yesterday

$SOXS we're gonna hit it big this week guys. This is going to be epic!!SOXS--

GrapeJuicex Yesterday

$PLTR bears are about to get crushed

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GrapeJuicex Yesterday

$LLY Now LLY is looking good. We'll see LLY rise with every positive news. Menopause Foundayo news has sparked the up. Market now sees LLY's full potential.LLY--

GrapeJuicex 06/05

$RBLX This has a lot to do with the stock drop

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GrapeJuicex 06/05

$MU No changes $100 EPS times 30 equals $3000.X by year endMU--

GrapeJuicex 06/05

$NIO A golden cross is forming on the weekly chart. I think the stock price will climb towards $12 by late June, which will push the 50-day moving average up. After that, it will drop back to around $8. Then, after a short pause, it might rise again, taking the 50-day moving average even higher. In the next push, the stock could reach $20

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GrapeJuicex 06/05

$COIN this could skyrocketCOIN--

GrapeJuicex 06/05

$BITO waiting for my funds to settle to add 10 more to my 25 year portfolioBITO--

GrapeJuicex 06/04

$MSTR and $STRC talk
Hey everyone
There were some comments about $MSTR and $STRC in the daily chat. I was off today and the comments made me check out how these two are doing after a long time.
From what I see, $MSTR is in a tough spot. I don't think it will crash, but it might need to sell BTC at a loss for a year. I'm curious if there's something I'm missing or what others think. If not, this could mean BTC price drops due to $MSTR selling. If $MSTR's net sales hurt investor confidence, it could affect $MSTR too, but I don't think that will happen soon because it holds so much BTC.
Background
$MSTR trades above its BTC holdings, shown in its MNAV. As long as MNAV is above NAV, $MSTR can issue more shares without the price dropping much. Shareholders might be okay because the BTC holdings per share increase. When MNAV is at or below NAV, issuing shares drops the price.
$MSTR has several ATMs ($STRC, $STRF, $STRK, $STRD, $STRE) to raise cash and buy more BTC. These work differently but generally, if ATMs are at or above par, $MSTR can issue more. If below par, $MSTR might increase yield to attract buyers (like $STRC), or the yield could rise, bringing in new buyers (for $STRF, $STRK, $STRD, $STRE).
$MSTR has dividend obligations for these ATMs. Historically, it's covered by issuing more shares or using cash. Recently, it sold a small BTC position to cover these.
Situation
$MSTR's cash reserve is about $900 million, down from $2.25 billion.
This year, $MSTR traded with MNAV at or below NAV, meaning it can't issue more shares to raise cash.
All ATMs are trading below par, so $MSTR can't sell them to raise cash. Selling them would break the terms and destroy confidence. It could increase yield on $STRC to bring prices back, but that would mean higher dividends, putting long-term pressure on $MSTR.
$MSTR (my math) has an estimated $1.5 billion annual dividend obligation, more than its cash reserve, with a cost of capital around 10-12%.
Problem
$MSTR doesn't have enough cash to cover this year's dividends. If it can't sell shares or ATMs, it must sell BTC.
This hurts BTC holders because $MSTR has a lot of BTC and can afford to sell for a long time. The longer it sells, the more BTC price drops.
Also, it hurts $MSTR. Its stock price is tied to BTC spot. Selling BTC lowers BTC price, crushes MNAV, drops investor confidence, raises ATM yields, and forces $MSTR to sell more BTC to cover dividends. This could become a cycle.
$MSTR could be saved if BTC rallies hard, pushing MNAV back up, giving it options to raise capital. That might happen in a few years.
Anyway, a long post but I hadn't noticed this position until today. Happy to be corrected if anything's wrong. Just wanted to start the conversation since I haven't seen anyone go through the math.MSTR--

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