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Does this boost cash flows enough to offset higher rates?
Why does every rumor about a new app tie get a 5% pop, then fade? Feels like the market rewards noise more than substance lately.
Trend intact; momentum traders riding the green wave.
If CagriSema adherence lags, does that pressure reimbursement timelines and push for generics or biosimilars? How does that interact with broader diabetes policy and Medicare coverage decisions?
Is this trend still intact after the adherence headline?
That's not a correction. That's a sentiment regime change.
When the VIX moves that fast, it means institutional investors are repricing tail risk — not just taking profits. The question isn't whether this week bounces. It's whether the low-volatility AI bull market regime is structurally over.
Nervous, but staying patient through this volatility.
Everyone’s calling a regime change, but a 34% VIX spike usually fades. If institutions are repricing tail risk, why did SPY and QQQ still run? Feels like panic selling ahead of earnings, not a structural break.
For a bounce trade, are we better off selling dips in SPY/IVV or waiting for a 100-day retest? Any preferred risk/reward?
This is what I posted on X on last Sunday night “Over the near-term, the overall market at some point will need to take a breather from increasingly overbought technical conditions. After nine straight weekly gains, the S&P is now up 19% from its recent closing low on March 30th. But I feel like any losses will be contained to the typical ~5% pullback which is typically seen three to four times per year.”
After being up for nine straight weeks, the S&P went from an all-time closing high on Tuesday June 2nd and 14-day RSI of 75 to an RSI of 49 on Friday June 5th and down 3.0% from that Tuesday level.
During the internet infrastructure buildout between December 31, 1994 and the peak on March 10, 2000, the S&P tripled, the Nasdaq went up 6.7x and the SOXX Index advanced 9.5x. The S&P during this time had its 14-day RSI cross below 70 (overbought level) fifty times. 36% of the time, that day was the low point before it crossed back above 70 again. 42% of the time the low was reached within 2 trading days and 62% within three days. The average was 10 trading days to hit a short-term low and down 2.5% on average from the overbought level before the advance started to the next overbought reading.
Next week, there will be several potential market moving events. The $AAPL WWDC is on Monday. With the stock price surge into this event, a sell the news reaction would not be surprising much like with recent tech results. But I am bullish longer-term given after a 2 year wait we should finally get an AI infused iPhone. I am also very bullish on the larger form factor of a foldable phone that has driven major upgrade cycles in the past. Samsung introduced a foldable in 2019.
CPI on Wednesday will be closely watched along with how bond yields react. $ORCL results are also that day which should be solid given recent commentary from major customer OpenAI as well as related hyper-scaler cloud results. Having said that, a new CFO may want to set very achievable initial FY27 guidance that could disappoint.
The ECB is likely to raise rates on Thursday since being on hold after cutting rates in June of 2025 to 2.0%. Commentary will likely set the bar for the Fed in the following week.
Over the long-term I remain bullish given: 1) S&P earnings are expected to increase 25% this year driven by the advent of Agentic AI, 2) I believe oil prices will come down to the $80ish level given the political toll it is extracting on the US administration every day that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and 3) new Fed Chairman Warsh is likely to push back against calls to raise rates. I view this recent pullback as well needed to work off the recent froth versus marking "the top."
All the best in the week ahead.SOXX--
S&P -2.6% on Friday, 2y yield +10bps, RSI 49 from 75; weekly losses averaging ~5% post-9-week streak, consistent with prior overbought pullbacks.
Feels heavy; I’ll wait for a cleaner bounce.
I’m new here, but it looks like the market just caught a breath after nine straight up weeks. RSI dropping from 75 to 49 feels like a reset.
Holding TSLA and QQQ—add more or wait?
Everyone’s cheering the $400 pop, but I’m not convinced. Margins still fragile, China demand soft, and QQQ’s run can unwind fast. If TSLA drifts, SPY might chase, then punish those chasing the headline.
Feels like a classic pre-open pop. If TSLA doesn’t hold $400, the whole rally unravels. Not buying the inevitability.
Price action screams momentum: sharp drop, then bounce. If volume fades, trend likely reverses; if it builds, could keep running.
Hard to see this as a durable position; 618 to 25 is a 20x swing. Feels like a trap, not a thesis.
As a sector watcher, this feels like classic alt whiplash. BTC dominance still high, liquidity thin, and exchange listings can swing things. I’m uneasy riding this range without clearer catalysts or fundamentals.
