GUSH--
XLE--
How I've been playing oil during the war Trump's been pretty clear about his plans with Iran. Right before the war, there were so many troops, it was clear he'd launch an airstrike. That's when I bought $GUSH, $XLE, and a small $1k position in $USO. Market thought the war would end soon but didn't realize both sides were far apart. When we heard about a ceasefire, I loaded up even more. Media was saying Trump would announce a ceasefire when he speaks to the nation. It was obvious it was a lie if you saw the pattern: lots of out-of-the-money calls were bought, especially $60–65 calls for $XLE and $50 for $GUSH. Once Trump takes Kharg Island, things will get messy. Gas fields in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, maybe Qatar will be hit, and many US troops will be hurt. How to profit? If you're in oil, just hold; oil might reach $150 a barrel in two weeks. If not, wait for Trump to speak; he'll say some good news, like talks going well, which might dip oil stocks. I say buy at that dip. Once Kharg Island is taken, watch $SCO; it's an oil short ETF. When oil drops, $SCO goes up. Before the war, it was trading at $25–30 a share; now it's at $8 and could drop to $4. That's when I'll buy 2027–2028 calls. I did that when $GUSH was at $12. When $GAAS hit its peak, it was at $250 a share. This is a repeat. I don't think oil will drop right away, but Trump might pump it, maybe releasing more reserves or offering more permits, causing a quick drop. So, hold oil if you're in; if not, buy on the dip. After Kharg Island is taken and oil hits above $150 a barrel, check $SCO 2027–2028 calls when the stock is below $5. Current positions: $GUSH 50c Jan 2027, $XLE 60c 2027, $USO 135 Apr 17. Not financial advice, as always.
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