investment write ups company insights substack

14 Investment Write-Ups to Check Out
Another round of company insights from Substack authors from the past week. Not mine—taken from Giles Capital's weekly round-up: https://gilescapital.substack.com
Americas
Rijnberk InvestInsights on Shopify (🇨🇦 SHOP TSX - CAD$198bn)
Shopify handles 29% of US online shopping at a 63x P/E. The toll from payments, capital, and growing B2B business either grows faster than the multiple shrinks, or it doesn't.
D Invests on Tractor Supply (🇺🇸 TSCO US - US$23.5bn)
A rural lifestyle store at 14.7x P/E, strong in areas with no big rivals. Management is buying back shares as insiders reach 43% of US rural households, showing lasting demand.
Archive Invest on Toast (🇺🇸 TOST US - US$15.1bn)
Restaurant software covers 28% of US food service, down 47% from peak, but with $1.8bn in cash, no sell ratings, and improving EBITDA guidance.
DeepValue Capital on KBR (🇺🇸 KBR US - US$3.5bn)
Government services and engineering at $3.5bn market cap. A contract end put the author on the sidelines; $2.2bn net debt keeps re-entry tough.
Value Don't Lie on MasterBrand (🇺🇸 MBC US - US$1.8bn)
Biggest US cabinet maker after a merger, with over 30% market share. Trades at 7.7x trough EBITDA; a housing recovery and $90M in merger gains are the reasons.
Unfair Advantage on Natural Grocers (🇺🇸 NGVC US - US$659M)
22 years of positive sales growth; Isely family owns 43%. In-house nutritionists help retain customers; P/E 13.5x with mid-teens growth targets.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Demystified Value on Prada (🇮🇹 1913 HK - US$12.5bn)
Luxury at 9x EV/EBIT while peers trade 16-25x. Miu Miu growing 60%+, 80% Prada family control. The discount only makes sense if the brand is struggling; the data says otherwise.
310 Value on eDreams ODIGEO (🇪🇸 EDRE MC - €490M) TOP PICK
All the focus is on the -64% drop. The business has 7.9M Prime subscribers, EBITDA up 74% in nine months, and management buying stock at P/E 5.1x.
Asia-Pacific
G.W. Field Notes on ASX Limited (🇦🇺 ASX ASX - US$6bn)
Australia's main exchange at 8x sales vs 11x historically, 4.2% yield. The CHESS failure caused the discount; the moat across listing, trading, and clearing remains.
KonichiValue on Koei Tecmo Holdings (🇯🇵 3635 TYO - US$3.4bn)
Dynasty Warriors maker at 11.5x P/E; the Erikawa family's investments beat the gaming division last year. Clean balance sheet: ¥115bn net cash against $3.4bn market cap. Market sees it as a mid-tier studio.
Value Guinea on Da Ren Tang and Beijing Tong Ren Tang National Medicine (🇨🇳 600329 SS - US$4.2bn / 🇨🇳 3613 HK - US$913M)
Da Ren Tang ($3.8bn, P/E 14.6, 43% net margin) and Tong Ren Tang ($913M) run the same TCM brand. Equity reform and 28% ROE tell one story; SOE governance tells another.
stf research on Sakai Chemical Industry (🇯🇵 4078 TYO - ¥89bn)
World's top barium sulfate supplier to AI cooling, 30%+ market share, guidance raised. Stock up 90% since the post; the thesis still stands, but the re-rating is already priced.
Archetype Capital on Sakai Chemical Industry and Nippon Chemical Industrial (🇯🇵 4078 TYO - ¥89bn / 🇯🇵 4092 TYO - ¥48bn)
Pairing the market leader with the #3 barium sulfate supplier. Both up 90-130% since coverage; whether the oligopoly holds is now the question.
Value Zoomer on (🇲🇾 FOCUSP KLSE - US$83M) TOP PICK
Malaysia's top optical chain, with a government ban on online contact lens sales removing price competition. 51% founder control, 9x P/E, 90 stores.