mstr strc earnings analysis dividend obligations btc price impact

$MSTR and $STRC talk
Hey everyone
There were some comments about $MSTR and $STRC in the daily chat. I was off today and the comments made me check out how these two are doing after a long time.
From what I see, $MSTR is in a tough spot. I don't think it will crash, but it might need to sell BTC at a loss for a year. I'm curious if there's something I'm missing or what others think. If not, this could mean BTC price drops due to $MSTR selling. If $MSTR's net sales hurt investor confidence, it could affect $MSTR too, but I don't think that will happen soon because it holds so much BTC.
Background
$MSTR trades above its BTC holdings, shown in its MNAV. As long as MNAV is above NAV, $MSTR can issue more shares without the price dropping much. Shareholders might be okay because the BTC holdings per share increase. When MNAV is at or below NAV, issuing shares drops the price.
$MSTR has several ATMs ($STRC, $STRF, $STRK, $STRD, $STRE) to raise cash and buy more BTC. These work differently but generally, if ATMs are at or above par, $MSTR can issue more. If below par, $MSTR might increase yield to attract buyers (like $STRC), or the yield could rise, bringing in new buyers (for $STRF, $STRK, $STRD, $STRE).
$MSTR has dividend obligations for these ATMs. Historically, it's covered by issuing more shares or using cash. Recently, it sold a small BTC position to cover these.
Situation
$MSTR's cash reserve is about $900 million, down from $2.25 billion.
This year, $MSTR traded with MNAV at or below NAV, meaning it can't issue more shares to raise cash.
All ATMs are trading below par, so $MSTR can't sell them to raise cash. Selling them would break the terms and destroy confidence. It could increase yield on $STRC to bring prices back, but that would mean higher dividends, putting long-term pressure on $MSTR.
$MSTR (my math) has an estimated $1.5 billion annual dividend obligation, more than its cash reserve, with a cost of capital around 10-12%.
Problem
$MSTR doesn't have enough cash to cover this year's dividends. If it can't sell shares or ATMs, it must sell BTC.
This hurts BTC holders because $MSTR has a lot of BTC and can afford to sell for a long time. The longer it sells, the more BTC price drops.
Also, it hurts $MSTR. Its stock price is tied to BTC spot. Selling BTC lowers BTC price, crushes MNAV, drops investor confidence, raises ATM yields, and forces $MSTR to sell more BTC to cover dividends. This could become a cycle.
$MSTR could be saved if BTC rallies hard, pushing MNAV back up, giving it options to raise capital. That might happen in a few years.
Anyway, a long post but I hadn't noticed this position until today. Happy to be corrected if anything's wrong. Just wanted to start the conversation since I haven't seen anyone go through the math.