PickAlpha Midday: Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is reportedly at full 7M bpd capacity, with crude exports via Yanbu hitting about 5M bpd and another 0.7M-0.9M bpd of products moving through the Red Sea. That’s a big supply boost — explaining why oil hasn’t crashed — but it still only covers about 15M bpd of crude that once passed through Hormuz before the war. Tickers: We think this could be bad news for a sharp oil spike, but not for oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s workaround helps manage risks but doesn’t fix the issue that a lot of Gulf supply can’t move smoothly anymore, so the market will still expect a geopolitical premium.
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