avgo iran nuclear talks oil market impact

While everyone was watching AVGO last night, a quieter but potentially more important story developed: Iran suspended nuclear talks, and oil ticked back toward $93.
This matters more than most people realize. The entire May rally — Nasdaq +8%, S&P +5%, WTI −17% — was built on one macro assumption: that the Iran conflict was moving toward resolution and energy prices would remain subdued. That assumption powered the inflation relief narrative, which powered the Fed-will-eventually-cut narrative, which powered the multiple expansion in tech.
If that assumption cracks — if the ceasefire frays, if oil re-accelerates toward $100 — the entire macro backdrop reverses. You get higher energy costs, stickier inflation, a more hawkish Fed path, and compressed multiples in exactly the growth stocks that have been carrying the market. Goldman's adverse scenario has Brent hitting $115 if Hormuz reopening is delayed and Gulf production losses persist. The IMF has already revised 2026 global growth down to 3.1%, naming Iran as the primary driver.
Today's NFP report lands into this backdrop. A strong jobs number doesn't help — it raises rate fears. A weak number raises recession fears. The clean scenario (in-line data, Iran talks resume, oil stabilizes) is possible but is no longer the base case. For the first time since early May, the market has multiple things going wrong simultaneously.
The AI narrative is powerful. But it doesn't exist outside of the macro.