WAR--
selling oil shock risks investing market timing
Selling to avoid oil shock risks
I buy a certain amount of stocks every month into a broad index fund. This is the easiest way for me to invest, and I know it's impossible to time the market. But I feel it's hard to justify staying in the market right now. Are oil shock risks properly priced in today's prices? It seems they should be, but many signs point to a possible shock in the next 1-12 months. If it happens, it could be quite bad. You can't time the market, but if you can see a big risk coming, why not play it safe? It's hard to believe the market will go up 10-20% even if war ends now. But it's not hard to imagine it dropping at least that much if it continues. So, I'm risking missing out on 1-5% gains the rest of the year to protect against a potential 20-30% loss. Am I being foolish for trying to time the market, even though I shouldn't?
I buy a certain amount of stocks every month into a broad index fund. This is the easiest way for me to invest, and I know it's impossible to time the market. But I feel it's hard to justify staying in the market right now. Are oil shock risks properly priced in today's prices? It seems they should be, but many signs point to a possible shock in the next 1-12 months. If it happens, it could be quite bad. You can't time the market, but if you can see a big risk coming, why not play it safe? It's hard to believe the market will go up 10-20% even if war ends now. But it's not hard to imagine it dropping at least that much if it continues. So, I'm risking missing out on 1-5% gains the rest of the year to protect against a potential 20-30% loss. Am I being foolish for trying to time the market, even though I shouldn't?
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