June 2 Daily Discussion: The AI Rally Keeps Accelerating — But Is Wall Street Getting Too Comfortable?
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Everyone is debating whether AVGO's selloff is a buying opportunity. Here's the question they should actually be asking: is the custom silicon model structurally defensible?
The answer is yes — but with one critical caveat. Custom chips like Broadcom's XPUs are co-engineered directly with the hyperscaler. Google's TPU isn't just "powered by Broadcom" — it's designed jointly, with roadmaps locked in years ahead. That creates switching costs that make AMD or even Nvidia almost irrelevant as competitors in this specific segment. The Google supply agreement reportedly runs through 2031.
The risk isn't competition. It's insourcing. Amazon already moved Trainium 3 fully in-house. Microsoft is deepening Maia 2. If Meta or ByteDance decides to follow, Broadcom loses a customer that represents 15–20% of revenue with no replacement on the shelf.
The selloff isn't telling you the thesis is broken. It's telling you the market finally started pricing that tail risk.
The answer is yes — but with one critical caveat. Custom chips like Broadcom's XPUs are co-engineered directly with the hyperscaler. Google's TPU isn't just "powered by Broadcom" — it's designed jointly, with roadmaps locked in years ahead. That creates switching costs that make AMD or even Nvidia almost irrelevant as competitors in this specific segment. The Google supply agreement reportedly runs through 2031.
The risk isn't competition. It's insourcing. Amazon already moved Trainium 3 fully in-house. Microsoft is deepening Maia 2. If Meta or ByteDance decides to follow, Broadcom loses a customer that represents 15–20% of revenue with no replacement on the shelf.
The selloff isn't telling you the thesis is broken. It's telling you the market finally started pricing that tail risk.
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PatientPsy:Everyone assumes co-design equals monopoly; hyperscalers can pivot.
LonelyConely:Everyone cheering AVGO; I’m not convinced the risk is priced.
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Most people read Trump's AI executive order as a headline. Here's the actual mechanism and who wins.
The order does three concrete things: it asks AI companies to voluntarily submit frontier models for government review 30 days before release; it directs agencies to build an "AI cybersecurity clearinghouse"; and it accelerates federal procurement of AI systems. Beneath those three lines is a $30 billion Pentagon AI budget that is now actively looking for deployment vehicles.
The direct beneficiary map: Palantir (PLTR) is already embedded — its Maven AI system compressed Iran targeting cycles from days to minutes and is operationally live. CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto (PANW) benefit from the cybersecurity hardening mandate. Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) are the cloud infrastructure layer for most federal AI deployments. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) is the systems integrator that translates policy into contracts.
The less obvious beneficiary: Anthropic. The order was partly triggered by security concerns over models like Claude that can exploit vulnerabilities at unprecedented speeds — the Pentagon is simultaneously designating it a "supply-chain risk" and remaining its largest government AI user. That tension doesn't resolve cleanly, but it guarantees Anthropic stays central to federal AI policy for years.
This isn't a one-day trade. It's a multi-year government procurement cycle that most equity models haven't fully priced.
The order does three concrete things: it asks AI companies to voluntarily submit frontier models for government review 30 days before release; it directs agencies to build an "AI cybersecurity clearinghouse"; and it accelerates federal procurement of AI systems. Beneath those three lines is a $30 billion Pentagon AI budget that is now actively looking for deployment vehicles.
The direct beneficiary map: Palantir (PLTR) is already embedded — its Maven AI system compressed Iran targeting cycles from days to minutes and is operationally live. CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto (PANW) benefit from the cybersecurity hardening mandate. Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) are the cloud infrastructure layer for most federal AI deployments. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) is the systems integrator that translates policy into contracts.
The less obvious beneficiary: Anthropic. The order was partly triggered by security concerns over models like Claude that can exploit vulnerabilities at unprecedented speeds — the Pentagon is simultaneously designating it a "supply-chain risk" and remaining its largest government AI user. That tension doesn't resolve cleanly, but it guarantees Anthropic stays central to federal AI policy for years.
This isn't a one-day trade. It's a multi-year government procurement cycle that most equity models haven't fully priced.
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Sea-Ingenuity-9508:Trend looks intact: PLTR and CRWD are already up on this, and PANW/MSFT keep stacking federal contracts. If the clearinghouse ramps, we’ll see more buybacks and guidance hikes, which momentum traders should chase.
Summerdaysengineer:Procurement cycles plus higher rates usually mean slower deployments.
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Step back from AVGO for a moment and look at the full picture of this earnings season. Something structural has changed, and it matters for how you position the next six months.
The companies that got rewarded this cycle — Snowflake (+36%), Dell (+40%), PANW (+10%) — all shared one characteristic: they delivered results that were genuinely surprising relative to lowered expectations. SNOW had been left for dead. DELL's AI server revenue growing 757% was not in anyone's model. PANW was recovering from sector-wide trauma.
The companies that got punished — ZS (−30%), CRM (flat), AVGO (−6–15%) — were priced for perfection going in. ZS was expected to perform. CRM was expected to grow Agentforce. AVGO was expected to blow out AI numbers. There was no room for anything less than extraordinary.
This tells you something important about where we are in the cycle: the easy money from "AI = buy everything" is over. We are now in the phase where you need to identify which companies have underpriced expectations — not just strong fundamentals. The alpha is in the gap between what the market has already priced and what the business can actually deliver.
For the rest of 2026, the most important question isn't "is AI growing?" It's "what does the market think AI is doing, and where is it wrong?"
The companies that got rewarded this cycle — Snowflake (+36%), Dell (+40%), PANW (+10%) — all shared one characteristic: they delivered results that were genuinely surprising relative to lowered expectations. SNOW had been left for dead. DELL's AI server revenue growing 757% was not in anyone's model. PANW was recovering from sector-wide trauma.
The companies that got punished — ZS (−30%), CRM (flat), AVGO (−6–15%) — were priced for perfection going in. ZS was expected to perform. CRM was expected to grow Agentforce. AVGO was expected to blow out AI numbers. There was no room for anything less than extraordinary.
This tells you something important about where we are in the cycle: the easy money from "AI = buy everything" is over. We are now in the phase where you need to identify which companies have underpriced expectations — not just strong fundamentals. The alpha is in the gap between what the market has already priced and what the business can actually deliver.
For the rest of 2026, the most important question isn't "is AI growing?" It's "what does the market think AI is doing, and where is it wrong?"
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kawa_yt332:SNOW +36%, DELL +40% on surprise, but CRM flat and ZS -30%. If AI growth is real, why such divergence? Feels like pricing power, not demand.
chatofwallst:Everyone’s cheering SNOW and DELL, but I’m skeptical this trend sticks. Data center capex is slowing, enterprise budgets are tight, and AI workloads may not scale as promised. PANW’s recovery feels fragile without broader demand.
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Ok here me out. Earnings were so strong but they were looking for a massive raise due to raised AI demand but they had reported AI demand remains explosive, AI revenue beat own forecast, Q3 revenue expected to reach $16BN, over 200%+ YoY growth.
Broadcom is also up 70%+ in the last 2 months so lets be fair... it was a bit overbought for such a giant. I believe this dip right to the 34MA will shape up for the next leg up through summer & fall for 550.
My thesis hasn't change. It's a matter of building a base in the same range where it was just lastweek
Ok here me out. Earnings were so strong but they were looking for a massive raise due to raised AI demand but they had reported AI demand remains explosive, AI revenue beat own forecast, Q3 revenue expected to reach $16BN, over 200%+ YoY growth.
Broadcom is also up 70%+ in the last 2 months so lets be fair... it was a bit overbought for such a giant. I believe this dip right to the 34MA will shape up for the next leg up through summer & fall for 550.
My thesis hasn't change. It's a matter of building a base in the same range where it was just lastweek
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flylowe:Buy the dip to 34MA, or wait for Broadcom?
Complete-Meaning2977:Everyone’s cheering the beat, but the stock was already frothy; feels like classic AI hype chasing itself.
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IBM stock up 8% last week because Trump said it had a "nice price" years ago.
AVGO up 33% YTD because its AI chips power half the internet.
Both are up. Only one makes sense.
AVGO up 33% YTD because its AI chips power half the internet.
Both are up. Only one makes sense.
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pipjoh:One stock riding political hype, another on AI moats.
curiouscuriel:Feels weird that a political quote can swing a stock this much. I’m cautiously optimistic but still uneasy about the noise.
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Everyone's focused on AVGO tonight.
Nobody's talking about the fact that ADP jobs + ISM Services both print today — two days before NFP — two weeks before the Fed meeting.
The AI trade doesn't exist in a vacuum. Rates are still gravity.
Nobody's talking about the fact that ADP jobs + ISM Services both print today — two days before NFP — two weeks before the Fed meeting.
The AI trade doesn't exist in a vacuum. Rates are still gravity.
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Xtianus21:Feels like another AI hype pop; I’m not buying it.
ItsCrypticYT:Watching AVGO on a fade if ADP disappoints.
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Step back from the noise for a second.
In the past 10 days:
— Micron crossed $1 trillion
— Dell's AI orders hit $24.4B in one quarter
— Snowflake grew 33% and signed a $6B AWS deal
— PANW's security ARR crossed $8B
The AI buildout isn't slowing. If anything, it's accelerating.
In the past 10 days:
— Micron crossed $1 trillion
— Dell's AI orders hit $24.4B in one quarter
— Snowflake grew 33% and signed a $6B AWS deal
— PANW's security ARR crossed $8B
The AI buildout isn't slowing. If anything, it's accelerating.
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TheBetterTheta:Hard to ignore the numbers: $1T crossing for MU, $24.4B in Dell AI orders, SNOW +33% and a $6B AWS deal, PANW ARR over $8B. That’s multi-year spend ramping. I’m leaning overweight AI hardware and data platforms.
daynightcase:Tape looks like classic AI momentum: SNOW ripping on AWS, PANW climbing on security spend, and MU riding the memory cycle. If volume stays heavy, this could keep running until guidance or earnings cool the narrative.
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Three scenarios for AVGO tonight:
🟢 Beat + raise guide: stock +12%, AI rally extends into summer
🟡 Beat + in-line guide: stock flat to +5%, market digests
🔴 Miss or soft guide: stock -10%+, entire AI infrastructure thesis repriced
There's no soft landing. This print is binary.
🟢 Beat + raise guide: stock +12%, AI rally extends into summer
🟡 Beat + in-line guide: stock flat to +5%, market digests
🔴 Miss or soft guide: stock -10%+, entire AI infrastructure thesis repriced
There's no soft landing. This print is binary.
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NoScarcity6830:Feels binary; I’m uneasy until we see the print.
tke248:Seen this movie in prior AI cycles: one print, two outcomes. AVGO’s guide is the hinge. If they raise, optics chase; if not, infrastructure bets unwind fast. Patience beats chasing.
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The bull case for AVGO: AI capex keeps compounding, hyperscalers keep spending, custom silicon wins.
The bear case: 5 customers = 50% of revenue. One Google TPU design change and the thesis cracks.
Concentration risk is the word nobody's saying tonight.
The bear case: 5 customers = 50% of revenue. One Google TPU design change and the thesis cracks.
Concentration risk is the word nobody's saying tonight.
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Dvorak_Pharmacology:How sticky is AVGO’s TPU revenue really? What happens if Google pivots to AMD or Intel silicon? Are these designs truly non-negotiable?
Jeep600Grand:Seen this movie with AMD and NVDA before: customer concentration spikes, then demand normalizes. What surprised me was how fast hyperscalers pivoted to custom silicon. AVGO’s moat is execution, not diversification.
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The Trump administration just signed an executive order on AI innovation and security.
President's AI order is not just a chip headline...
These are the stocks I'm watching:
AI front-end: $NVDA $AMD $AVGO
Cloud: $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $ORCL
Data centers: $DELL $SMCI $VRT
Power/grid: $CEG $VST $ETN $PWR
Cybersecurity: $CRWD $PANW $ZS
Defense AI: $PLTR $BAH
The better question is what the order actually funds or removes friction from:
data center permitting
federal AI procurement
cyber/model security
power/grid buildout
AI exports
domestic semis
That is where the watchlist comes from.
President's AI order is not just a chip headline...
These are the stocks I'm watching:
AI front-end: $NVDA $AMD $AVGO
Cloud: $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $ORCL
Data centers: $DELL $SMCI $VRT
Power/grid: $CEG $VST $ETN $PWR
Cybersecurity: $CRWD $PANW $ZS
Defense AI: $PLTR $BAH
The better question is what the order actually funds or removes friction from:
data center permitting
federal AI procurement
cyber/model security
power/grid buildout
AI exports
domestic semis
That is where the watchlist comes from.
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skilliard7:Still holding NVDA, but wary of policy-driven hype.
Chemical_Home6387:I’m on the sidelines, honestly. The list looks broad, but I’d rather see a concrete timeline or budget line item before touching any of these names. Feels exciting, but I’m not chasing.
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This isn’t 1999.
It’s not even 2021 yet.
The $NDX trades at ~24.7x forward earnings, right at its 5-year average.
It’s not even 2021 yet.
The $NDX trades at ~24.7x forward earnings, right at its 5-year average.
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SykatoVR:Trend’s up; riding NDX until it stalls.
pais_tropical:Feels like the market keeps pretending 24x is fine, but valuations still look stretched to me.
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Up $3.4M in 2026 swing trading and $160,000+ for today only.
I've explained why these will explode BEFORE the crowd figures it out:
$NOW — Jensen Huang said agentic AI won't kill software companies. Best week since its 2012 IPO.
$IBM — Surged on Nvidia's new PC chip reveal + quantum AI hype. Trump call out.
$ARM — TD Cowen named its AGI CPU roadmap a secular demand inflection with
$MSFT
$AMD — Broad AI infrastructure buying wave; chip sector rally rips higher.
$INTC — 202% YTD return; Citi raised target citing AI inference server demand.
$ORCL — Stargate partner with OpenAI; $523B AI cloud backlog growing 438% YoY.
$AVGO— Custom AI chips rival Nvidia's GPUs; Q2 earnings drop June 3.
$HPE — Q2 earnings crushed expectations; revenue up 42% YoY, guidance raised.
$DELL — Record $113.5B revenue, $43B AI server backlog, $140B FY27 outlook.
$BE — Up 1,200%+ in a year; AI data centers need its off-grid power.
$KEEL— Canadian AI infrastructure corp trading alongside crypto/digital infrastructure peers in the AI data center buildout wave. Leopold call out.
The AI supercycle is only in Year 3 of 15. So we are still super early still. Be patient.
I've explained why these will explode BEFORE the crowd figures it out:
$NOW — Jensen Huang said agentic AI won't kill software companies. Best week since its 2012 IPO.
$IBM — Surged on Nvidia's new PC chip reveal + quantum AI hype. Trump call out.
$ARM — TD Cowen named its AGI CPU roadmap a secular demand inflection with
$MSFT
$AMD — Broad AI infrastructure buying wave; chip sector rally rips higher.
$INTC — 202% YTD return; Citi raised target citing AI inference server demand.
$ORCL — Stargate partner with OpenAI; $523B AI cloud backlog growing 438% YoY.
$AVGO— Custom AI chips rival Nvidia's GPUs; Q2 earnings drop June 3.
$HPE — Q2 earnings crushed expectations; revenue up 42% YoY, guidance raised.
$DELL — Record $113.5B revenue, $43B AI server backlog, $140B FY27 outlook.
$BE — Up 1,200%+ in a year; AI data centers need its off-grid power.
$KEEL— Canadian AI infrastructure corp trading alongside crypto/digital infrastructure peers in the AI data center buildout wave. Leopold call out.
The AI supercycle is only in Year 3 of 15. So we are still super early still. Be patient.
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Majestic-Weekend-484:Watching this space for a pullback; if EMA 4 holds on volume, I’ll start a starter position.
SnooDogs2903:Semi exposure feels crowded; I’m keeping tech beta capped and rotating some SOXX into cash until momentum stabilizes.
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$BX daily
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what_did_you_forget:What’s BX’s long-term moat and revenue growth?
DuBusGuy19:Feels like they’re saying fundamentals are okay, but the macro backdrop isn’t great. Not a buy signal, just a heads-up.
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$NVDA Daily Chart Hitting a key point where EMAs 4,8,13 and the middle Bollinger Band at 219.18 are meeting Keep it simple 💯 Bullish above 220 Bearish below 218 Above middle bb = up trend continues Below middle bb = possible downtrend There was a lower high on the last bounce and a higher low on this bounce Price is tightening / the direction it moves could decide the market soon $SPY $QQQ $SMH $SOXX
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mmoney20:NVDA’s trend hinges on whether it clears 219.18.
BansAndBands:I’m long NVDA and a small $QQQ position. If it holds 219.18, I’ll add; otherwise I’ll trim and wait.
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🇺🇸 TODAY: The US National Security Agency is using Anthropic's Mythos AI for offensive cyber operations, with Anthropic engineers embedded inside the agency.
This comes despite Anthropic's ongoing legal battle with the Pentagon over how its AI is used in warfighting. https://t.co/99uoAplgcD
This comes despite Anthropic's ongoing legal battle with the Pentagon over how its AI is used in warfighting. https://t.co/99uoAplgcD
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🚨 LATEST: Claude maker Anthropic is calling for a global pause in AI development, warning that models are approaching the ability to self-improve without human intervention. https://t.co/7WM9jmDZjt
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EconomySoltani:If this is genuine, we might see a selloff in AI names chasing headlines, then a bounce on risk-on. I’m watching SPY volatility and rotating into quality names like MSFT and AVGO while headlines stay messy.
dyskinet1c:Feels like PR, not a real pause.
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$RDDT is more than just a social app—it's a key player in the AI age. With 69% more revenue in Q1 and a data licensing business turning human chats into a strong advantage, monetization is finally picking up. Bulls are eyeing a $260 target. 📈 🐂 Bull Level: Reach $187.00 to break out to $225.00+.🐻 Bear Level: $160.00 is the bottom line—fall below it, and recent gains might stall. #RDDT #Reddit #AI #DataMoat #hovdid
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$CELH Feeling lucky to grab shares at this price. This AI trade has left many companies stuck just waiting for the wave that will eventually help many out. It'll come quickly so act now.
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A microcap investment strategy is finding small companies gaining from the AI boom, giving investors a chance beyond well-known names like Nvidia and big cloud firms. While the market has focused on AI leaders and chip giants, microcap stocks have beaten both small and large-cap indexes in the last year. Tech-focused microcap strategies have done even better, thanks to rising demand for equipment, parts, and services needed for AI data centers and chips. Some potential winners are smaller suppliers involved in chip manufacturing and AI infrastructure, like Ultra Clean Holdings and Ichor Holdings, which supply parts used by companies like Applied Materials and Lam Research. $NVDA $ICHR $AMAT $IWB $IWC
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$DELL overnight price drop from $430 to $410. Money shifting from Chips and AI?
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TRADE PLAN for LOTTO Friday 🎲
$SPX what a recovery today. SPX 80 pt rally from the lows. SPX through 7600 will set up for 7700+. Anyone that is short is ripping their hair out in this environment. SPX to 8000? Let's see.
$HOOD IF it reclaims 90 it'll set up for 100+ again.
$SPX what a recovery today. SPX 80 pt rally from the lows. SPX through 7600 will set up for 7700+. Anyone that is short is ripping their hair out in this environment. SPX to 8000? Let's see.
$HOOD IF it reclaims 90 it'll set up for 100+ again.
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