Trend’s up; riding XLE until it stalls.
Feels like the macro tailwinds are finally catching up: WTI above $80, stronger dollar, and a softer dollar backdrop. If the Fed stays patient and geopolitics stay muted, XLE should trend higher, but I’m cautious about margin compression and refiners’ inventories.
Everyone’s cheering the rally, but XLE’s volume looks thin and price action looks like a squeeze, not a durable breakout.
Macro backdrop still matters: if real yields stay sticky and the Fed pauses, risk appetite could hold. But if inflation prints hotter or jobs surprise, liquidity could tighten fast. Watching USD strength and liquidity ahead of next CPI.
For those trading this bounce, what’s your plan if BTC stalls at 22k? Are you waiting for a breakdown, or scaling into 23k with tight stops? Also curious about pairing trades—ETHUSDT or SOLUSDT to hedge?
Seen this movie before—support rallies fade. What’s the real catalyst here, and where’s the next liquidity trap likely to be?
