June 1 Daily Discussion: AI PCs, Falling Oil, and Jobs Data — What Drives June?
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What drives the market in June?
AI Innovation
Economic Data
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49%
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Everyone's focused on AVGO tonight.
Nobody's talking about the fact that ADP jobs + ISM Services both print today — two days before NFP — two weeks before the Fed meeting.
The AI trade doesn't exist in a vacuum. Rates are still gravity.
Nobody's talking about the fact that ADP jobs + ISM Services both print today — two days before NFP — two weeks before the Fed meeting.
The AI trade doesn't exist in a vacuum. Rates are still gravity.
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Xtianus21:Feels like another AI hype pop; I’m not buying it.
ItsCrypticYT:Watching AVGO on a fade if ADP disappoints.
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The bull case for AVGO: AI capex keeps compounding, hyperscalers keep spending, custom silicon wins.
The bear case: 5 customers = 50% of revenue. One Google TPU design change and the thesis cracks.
Concentration risk is the word nobody's saying tonight.
The bear case: 5 customers = 50% of revenue. One Google TPU design change and the thesis cracks.
Concentration risk is the word nobody's saying tonight.
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Dvorak_Pharmacology:How sticky is AVGO’s TPU revenue really? What happens if Google pivots to AMD or Intel silicon? Are these designs truly non-negotiable?
Jeep600Grand:Seen this movie with AMD and NVDA before: customer concentration spikes, then demand normalizes. What surprised me was how fast hyperscalers pivoted to custom silicon. AVGO’s moat is execution, not diversification.
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BREAKING: 🇺🇸 THE US STOCK MARKET WILL DO SOMETHING INSANE!
in 75 years of S&P 500 data, the index has NEVER peaked for the year in June.
Zero times. Out of 75.
The S&P just printed a parabolic blow-off into June. The seasonality says this isn't the top.
When the index peaks later in the year (October, November, December), the drawdowns that follow tend to be deeper and faster.
in 75 years of S&P 500 data, the index has NEVER peaked for the year in June.
Zero times. Out of 75.
The S&P just printed a parabolic blow-off into June. The seasonality says this isn't the top.
When the index peaks later in the year (October, November, December), the drawdowns that follow tend to be deeper and faster.
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Masala-Papad:If it’s momentum, why fade into June?
Scared_Cheetah_6865:Feels like rate cuts still ahead, but risk appetite wobbles.
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Prediction: 5 years from now Devs will run most (80-95%) of their AI workloads locally.
Today's OSS coding models are already good enough for most problems. They will be far better in 5 years.
Today's hardware can already run coding models. All you need is a decent GPU, a DGX sparc, a Jetson Orin Nano Super, etc. Hardware will be optimized for AI workloads and performance for AI will increase far faster than Moore's law.
Today we pay for Claude to get the harness (Claude code), but that piece will have strong OSS alternatives. This is now especially easier since much of the harness can be generated using AI.
You will be able to tap into datacenter level compute/memory or frontier models as needed but will seldom need it for coding.
If I'm right, there are some interesting questions.
1. As an investor, I'd bet on OpenAI, Claude, others. for the next 2 years, but for 5 years...it's a coin flip. At least one ends up as myspace(dies), one ends up as Facebook(prospers), and one ends up like reddit (survives but meaningless). I guarantee a big player like Oracle, Google, Microsoft, IBM buys at least one of them.
2. What do we do with all the compute we are building out now? My guess is they become compute wholesalers to corporations that have AI baked into their apps and the AI datacenters become a new Cloud, call it Cloud 2.0.
Today's OSS coding models are already good enough for most problems. They will be far better in 5 years.
Today's hardware can already run coding models. All you need is a decent GPU, a DGX sparc, a Jetson Orin Nano Super, etc. Hardware will be optimized for AI workloads and performance for AI will increase far faster than Moore's law.
Today we pay for Claude to get the harness (Claude code), but that piece will have strong OSS alternatives. This is now especially easier since much of the harness can be generated using AI.
You will be able to tap into datacenter level compute/memory or frontier models as needed but will seldom need it for coding.
If I'm right, there are some interesting questions.
1. As an investor, I'd bet on OpenAI, Claude, others. for the next 2 years, but for 5 years...it's a coin flip. At least one ends up as myspace(dies), one ends up as Facebook(prospers), and one ends up like reddit (survives but meaningless). I guarantee a big player like Oracle, Google, Microsoft, IBM buys at least one of them.
2. What do we do with all the compute we are building out now? My guess is they become compute wholesalers to corporations that have AI baked into their apps and the AI datacenters become a new Cloud, call it Cloud 2.0.
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thegratefulshread:Everyone's cheering local AI, but I feel the opposite. Fragmentation scares me; OSS tools won't standardize, and companies won't trust DIY pipelines.
itshtn:If devs really run 80-95% locally, how do they share models, debug, or collaborate? What happens to enterprise support and compliance? And if hardware is commoditized, who captures margins—OEMs, GPU makers, or software providers?
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When April and May both gain 4%+, June has never been down.
Since 1975 this setup has occurred 6 times. June was positive every single time:
• 1975: +4.43%
• 1980: +2.70%
• 1997: +4.35%
• 2003: +1.13%
• 2009: +0.02%
• 2020: +1.84%
Average June return: +2.41%.
Median: +2.27%.
Win rate: 100%.
2026 just locked in April +10.42% and May +5.15%.
That puts this year firmly in the elite setup.
Since 1975 this setup has occurred 6 times. June was positive every single time:
• 1975: +4.43%
• 1980: +2.70%
• 1997: +4.35%
• 2003: +1.13%
• 2009: +0.02%
• 2020: +1.84%
Average June return: +2.41%.
Median: +2.27%.
Win rate: 100%.
2026 just locked in April +10.42% and May +5.15%.
That puts this year firmly in the elite setup.
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noobmaster0613:Win rate doesn’t matter if the macro backdrop flips. If rates stay high or inflation re-accelerates, this setup evaporates fast.
Dvorak_Pharmacology:Historical patterns rarely predict individual months.
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$BTCUSDT big players selling crypto to chase AI hype
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cyarui:This whole setup feels weird. Whales selling while AI gets hyped makes me uneasy. I want to be excited, but I’m also nervous about chasing a trend that might not stick.
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🚨 NEW: Trump's Iran war has pushed US oil inventories to their lowest level since 2004, with analysts warning prices could hit $200/barrel this summer, FT reports. https://t.co/Dc3yZze5YW
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🔥 LATEST: Google's parent Alphabet upsizes its equity offering to $84.75 billion to fund AI infrastructure, up from an initial $80 billion target. https://t.co/wgbsLCX5Fg
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SeriousTsuki:84.75B sounds big, but GOOGL’s market cap is ~1.8T; dilution per share is ~0.45% if fully issued. Feels like optics.
DrMoveit:Does this change my tech overweight or just timing?
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⚡️ TODAY: Arthur Hayes calls $WLD a "shitcoin" destined to moon, citing AI as the key catalyst driving the rally. https://t.co/OnJBSCWclS
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$PLTR still expecting this hits 200 by end of June
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$SOXS all the big tech companies building data centers at these prices will crash later. I've seen this before with Meta, MSFT, ORCL, AMZN, OpenAI, GOOG all going all in a few years from now will have huge expenses that will hurt their profits.
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BMXBikr:Reading this as: big tech capex is so high, it’ll eventually squeeze profits. But isn’t that a guess? Margins can adapt, and demand can outpace costs. Feels like a narrative, not a certainty.
NoReplacementsFound:I’m new, but it seems like everyone’s building more data centers now, and that usually means higher costs and lower profits soon.
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I need you to pay ATTENTION. I will keep WARNING you until you LISTEN.
Before this week I started warning members that a SELL and PULLBACK was coming.
The market was giving us clues.
• Many AI leaders failed continuation breakouts.
• Momentum started slowing across the
Before this week I started warning members that a SELL and PULLBACK was coming.
The market was giving us clues.
• Many AI leaders failed continuation breakouts.
• Momentum started slowing across the
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OSRSkarma:Holding NVDA and AMZN; nervous but not selling yet.
Alegendwong:Trimming AI beta, adding cash, waiting for clarity.
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$TSLA AI is the only reason this is still up! Once the AI hype fades, it'll drop back to 200-250
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AlmightyAntwan12:Seen this movie since the IPO: tech pops on narratives, then grind back to fundamentals. If TSLA’s AI revenue isn’t material, this pullback isn’t surprise. I’m not convinced the 200-250 level is support, just a psychological anchor.
CumhuriyetFedaisi:Everyone assumes AI fades, but what if it doesn’t?
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$SOXS China is right with us spending much less and using software instead of hardware AI which means the big tech companies will have to sell their equipment much faster in a few years.
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$SNAP next week we hit the spec conference then a new AI deal with OpenAI replacing the Perplexity one then we get the next earnings report and a big rally if revenue beats expectations we're looking at $25-45
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Arby_88:Anyone trading SNAP into the spec conference? If the OpenAI deal pops, where’s the stop and what’s a reasonable target?
MCKnghtn:What does the OpenAI deal actually mean for users? Does it show up in my feed, or just behind the scenes? Also, how do they plan to make money from it?
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@AlrightAlrightAIright almost got it - June 2 $PANW
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$IBM Broadcom sent shockwaves with "AI bubble" "AI slowing down" fears and the algorithms quickly slashed tech stocks Maybe we recover or maybe this is the summer of a 40% drop
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greencandlevandal:AI fundamentals still strong; patience pays.
WrestlingFox:Feels like every AI headline gets punished, then we chase back. Markets seem to reward hype and punish conviction. I’m tired of the whipsaw and the endless reassurance that 'it’s just noise'.
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$SOXS feeling like the ai bubble is bursting today has been the best feeling I've had in a long time thanks to the semi bear crew
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$AVGO $SOXS $SOXL $TQQQ $SQQQ Watch out everyone. We think the AI stock trend is over for now. Broadcom and Nvidia have dropped after earnings and aren't cheap at current prices. The big players might start selling off the semiconductor stocks that have skyrocketed in the last few months, now with sky-high P/E ratios. Could be a tough day for semiconductors tomorrow.
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$QQQ More AI bubbles bursting... It's happening as they say////
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